Will the rioting in the wake of the death of George Floyd shift the political advantage to Trump and Republicans in the suburbs?
@davidsiders is very knowledgeable about Minnesota and other mid-Western states.
He takes seriously R gloating and D concerns in Minnesota about the political impact of the rioting there. 1/10
The key, though, I think, is in this quote from a former D party chairman: 2/10
I’m not convinced that this is how this will play out. 3/10
First of all, it is not clear that suburban voters — even suburban women voters — have been made to feel *unsafe* by the protests or even the violence that, unfortunately, has sometimes attended them. So far, none of the rioting seems to have impacted the burbs. 4/10
And this is important. What is going on is exacerbating, but not seriously changing, the urban-rural divide. It is the suburbs we need to watch, since it is the suburbs that are going to decide the November election. 5/10
It can be taken as a given that if civil unrest occurs that makes suburban voters and their families actually feel *unsafe*, it will seriously tilt the election in favor of Trump and Rs. 6/10
But so far, this is not what seems to be *happening* — though Siders quotes people who are *predicting* that it might or will happen. 7/10
This I can believe. Consider the current statement on the disturbances by the group
Indivisible HomeIndivisible is a nationwide movement of thousands of volunteer-led local groups that engage in progressive advocacy and electoral work at the local, state, and national level.http://Indivisible.org
. (“College-educated, middle-aged white women in the suburbs” pretty well defines this group’s demographics.) 9/10
Indivisible Is Working Hard to Live Up to Its NameActivists mobilized by this grassroots group had one thing in common: They wanted to fight Trump. Can they agree on what comes next?https://tinyurl.com/yd85v6p8
And this: 10/10