Why Trump’s chances of getting reelected are effectively zero
First, look at Trump’s net job approval ratings (538): 1/25
As of today, that’s an 8 point net job disapproval rating. 2/25
Now compare Trump’s rating at this point in the election cycle with the last time an incumbent president ran for reelection: Obama in 2012. 3/25
Here’s President Obama’s net job approval rating in May, 2012 (Gallup):
ApproveDisapprove No opinion 4/25
And here’s President Obama’s net job approval rating around election day, November 2012 (Gallup). 5/25
ApproveDisapprove No opinion
(Note: Wikipedia has survey data from more polling organizations for the 2012 presidential campaign and election here tinyurl.com/yc8ulm6t) 6/25
The presidential election in 2012 was a very close election. The popular vote was 51.1% to 47.2%, and Obama won by only 2 states (26–24).
I remember election night on 6 November 2012 very well. It was a cliffhanger. 7/25
In the week before the election I had phone banked for Obama into battleground states from Berkeley, and I remember election night coverage of those states particularly well. 8/25
Ohio was particularly close. (Karl Rove wanted Romney to delay his concession speech because he thought that Romney could take OH.) 9/25
Obama got reelected (popular vote 51.1% to 47.2%) because of a surge in his approval rating right before election day (largely because of a jump in his approval rating from Republicans). 10/25
Obama’s Approval Rating Is Soaring At Exactly The Right Time https://tinyurl.com/ycrcb3kb
The 2012 presidential election is instructive, because it shows (as common sense would tell us) that for Trump to get reelected as an incumbent president his job approval ratings must get to 50%+, or at least very close to that. 11/25
But the chances of that happening now, six months out from election day, are effectively zero. 12/25
On election day, 6 Nov 2012, Obama had a strong record to run on with the issue that mattered most to voters: the economy.
Wiki: “Economic policy of the Barack Obama administration” 13/25
Contrast this with Trump’s economic record.
We are now facing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the economy is almost certainly going to be at least at a Great Recession (1980s) level on election day. 14/25
This economic free fall was triggered by the pandemic, so Trump could escape his fate in November ONLY IF he could escape blame by getting high approval ratings from voters on his HANDLING of the epidemic.
But that isn’t happening. 15/25
Most voters, by a significant margin, *disapprove* of his handling of the pandemic crisis, with a large number expressing *strong* disapproval. 16/25
I have heard more times than I care to recall that Trump is going to be reelected, because no matter how often or how badly he screws up, it doesn’t seem to affect his approval ratings.
That is true, but it doesn’t matter, for two reasons. 17/25
First, it ignores the fact that Trump’s *disapproval* ratings have also been high and quite constant since his election, and that the number of voters who strongly *disapprove* of him has always been higher than the number of voters who strongly approve of him. 18/25
This was, in fact, a determining factor in the 2018 midterms. GOP approval of Trump was high, and even at record-breaking levels, and GOP turnout was high. But D turnout was also high, as was D disapproval of Trump. 19/25
The result? The 2018 midterms (when Trump was very much on the ballot, even if his name wasn’t) was a Blue Tsunami, and Ds gained 42 seats in the House. 20/25
In short, those who continue to believe that Trump will be reelected seem to be looking only at the number of voters who continue to *support* him, while ignoring the number of voters who continue to *detest* him.
These voters count too! 21/25
The second problem for Trump is that this election will be a referendum on *him* (just as it was for Obama and has been for every previous incumbent president), and it is increasingly unlikely that Trump will be able to get his job approval rating anywhere close to 50%. 22/25
That was always going to be hard, given his consistently high *disapproval* ratings from Democrats and Independents, but it is going to be virtually impossible now because of the pandemic and the economy. 23/25
Unless he can turn the economy around by November 3, which is extremely unlikely, Trump is going to be toast.
In fact, it is increasingly likely that he and the GOP that has enabled him are both going to lose in a landslide. 24/25
As one Republican strategist confided to WAPO recently (“Republicans grow nervous about losing the Senate amid worries over Trump’s handling of the pandemic”: 25/25
