Why polls asking voters now for their opinions about Mueller are almost certain to be misleading: some remarks on the USA Today/Suffolk poll.

Poll: Half of Americans say Trump is victim of a ‘witch hunt’ as trust in Mueller erodesAs the Russia report seems near, a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll finds half of Americans agree Trump is the victim of a “witch hunt,” and trust in Mueller erodes. https://tinyurl.com/y2l659lh

If you were an American who was not following Trump-Russia closely enough (which is probably 99%+ of Americans), you might very well think that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt (just as Trump has claimed) for two reasons: 2/11

First, you would assume that Mueller’s was primarily a criminal investigation, and second, you would assume (naturally enough) that if Mueller had found any evidence of crimes that were Russia-connected, we would know that by now.

But both these assumptions are mistaken. 3/11

As I have argued,

WHAT TO EXPECT — AND NOT EXPECT — FROM THE MUELLER REPORT(HINT: Expect a devastating investigative report showing collusion, but no indictments — these will come later, and will be made by career federal prosecutors) Mueller was never expected by the…https://tinyurl.com/y4t3hts3

4/11

As former prosecutor Nelson Cunningham has argued, 5/11

Mueller May Drop Second Report That Can’t Be BuriedThe special counsel isn’t only looking for crimes: He continues the counterintelligence investigation that started with suspicious Trump-Russia contacts in 2016.https://tinyurl.com/y54h3kck

And as Marty Lederman has argued today: 6/11

Why it’s a mistake to be a-waitin’ “the” Mueller Report (and why you should instead focus on two other reports) — Just SecurityOLC’s governing view of the constitutionality of a grand jury indictment of a sitting president therefore doesn’t stand in the way of DOJ providing a comprehensive account to Congress and the public …https://tinyurl.com/yydueq5o

Mueller’s is primarily a counterintelligence investigation. Prosecutions are not the purpose of such investigations, though they might turn up prosecutable crimes. 7/11

And Mueller has perfectly sound strategic reasons for holding off on any collusion indictments (or reports of impeachable actions by Trump) to the very last, when he is ready to submit his counterintelligence report. 8/11

Once one has seen this, it will be clear immediately that the length of the investigation does not show that Mueller hasn’t found anything worth reporting: on the contrary, it is evidence that he has found a LOT: otherwise he would have closed up shop long ago. 9/11

Even now 52% of respondents don’t believe or trust Trump’s denials that he didn’t collude with Russia. That number, of course, should be higher — and would be higher if the typical American were paying enough attention. 10/11

But the typical American isn’t paying enough attention — yet. The typical American will pay attention once the MUELLER REPORT(s) is out. Then all the present numbers will become meaningless. 11/11