There are likely enough Senate Republicans who detest Trump to ensure a real trial with witnesses — in part because these Senators won’t care if they damage his chances of reelection
The number to keep our eyes on in the Senate is not the number of Republicans who might vote to convict (a most unlikely outcome), but the number who will defy McConnell and vote for a fair trial with witnesses. 1/17
Consider the following mix: 2/17
1/ Jeff Flake said in September that at least 35 Senators would vote to remove Trump from office if the vote were private. Bill Weld has said more recently that he knows there would be at least six. 3/17
2/ But as of now, acquittal is virtually certain. (Indeed, it is possible that all Senate Republicans will vote to acquit.) 4/17
3/ McConnell pretty much conceded on Fox and Friends that he would not have the votes to block a real trial with witnesses. (That means he’s been talking to Republicans in his conference.) Schumer seems confident of the same as well. 5/17
4/ But we also know that a real trial with witnesses will be absolutely devastating for Trump. 6/17
So let’s put two and two together. 7/17
We know that a significant number of Senate Republicans detest Trump and fear where he is leading the party, which is down to disaster sooner or later. 8/17
We also know that they want to keep their seats and therefore don’t want to be primaried because this is now Trump’s party. 9/17
They also know that a fair trial with witnesses would be an absolute disaster for Trump. 10/17
They also know that so far the public, including a lot of Republicans, support a real trial with witnesses. Heck, until recently, Trump was demanding a trial. 11/17
So: Senate Republicans have the cover they need to defy McConnell and ensure there is a trial in the Senate, which will be devastating for Trump and make his reelection that much harder. 12/17
If these Senate Republicans can’t take Trump down one way, they’ll likely be willing to see him taken down some other way. 13/17
One reason why McConnell won’t have the votes to move for dismissal is that there will be at least five Senate Republicans who will not vote for dismissal because they don’t want a shameful, indefensible vote like that on their record in the history books. 14/17
But that’s probably not the only reason. There will likely be a strategy behind these votes.15/17
I read Blakeman’s opinion piece in The Hill, which I posted on Monday, as a warning sign for pro-Trumpers of the dangers of a real trial in the Senate, and as a shot across the bow for Senate Republicans who might vote for a real trial.
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No doubt we will see more of these alarm bells going off in the GOP as things move forward. 16/17
But for the two reasons I’ve given, I doubt that McConnell, Graham, Blakeman, and others of their ilk are going to be able to stop a real trial in the Senate. 17/17
