The current state of the nation is horrific — and Trump owns it. All of it.

The peaceful protests — and even the unfortunate violence and property destruction and hooliganism that have sometimes attended them — are not, IMO, going to hurt Biden and the Ds. Given how Trump has responded, they are more likely to hurt *him*. 1/13

As @gelliottmorris has emphasized, the protests, as well as the violence, have a context, and IMO that context is not good for Trump.

(Morris has been accused of implying that current events will help Trump, but I think this reading is untenable, and Morris has denied it.) 2/13

The media has not been focusing enough attention on the extreme complexity of the protests and civil disturbances. 3/13

Among other things, it has downplayed the exent to which the violence has been exploited and probably even incited by racist, right wing, pro-gun, white Christian nationalist groups. 4/13

This seriously problematizes Trump’s political narrative — blame it all on weak and incompetent D politicians, the far left, and Antifa.5/13

Equally importantly, it is clear that the protests are no longer just about George Floyd or even racist police brutality, or even about “law and order.”

They are also about income inequality (which has grown worse under Trump); 6/13

the fact that the Fed has bailed out the investor class, but left small businesses and lower income Americans (comprised disproportionately of blacks and other minorities) with crumbs from the table. 7/13

The protests have been overwhelmingly dominated by young people — even teenagers — who see their futures being blasted and even disappearing before their eyes under this administration, and who have never been under any illusions about Trump’s racism. 8/13

And it’s not just young people. Anyone with eyes to see can see a devastated country in crisis, highly polarized, and with unprecedented levels of unemployment and a public health care crisis that Trump has exacerbated and totally mismanaged. 9/13

That is the context — the framework — through which most American voters are going to view the events of today on November 3, and it’s not going to be good for Trump. 10/13

Every election in which a sitting president is running for reelection is essentially a referendum on that president.

“Are you better now than you were four years ago?” That is the question that Biden will be asking voters. 11/13

It is what every challenger does against an unpopular sitting president — and Trump is unpopular. 12/13

The current state of the nation is horrific — and Trump owns it.

All of it. 13/13