The biggest revelations in the FISA warrant applications on Carter Page published today: (1) the FBI had probable cause to believe that the Russian government’s efforts were being coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with Mr. Trump’s campaign; (2) that Mr. Page is a Russian agent who “has been collaborating and conspiring with the Russian government”; (3) that the warrant and its renewals were productive.

[Originally published on Twitter July 21, 2018]

The two biggest revelations in the (highly redacted) #CarterPage FISA warrant applications published today are: (A) the FBI believed that “the Russian government’s efforts [were] being coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with” Mr. Trump’s campaign,

1/ and that Mr. Page is a Russian agent who “has been collaborating and conspiring with the Russian government”; and

2/ (B) there was an original application and three renewals, the length of the applications growing significantly each time: first 66 pages, then 79 pages, 91 pages and 101 pages, respectively.

3/ To get the three renewals, the government had to show the court that the surveillance had been productive.

4/ The FBI and DOJ fiercely resisted pressure from Congressional Republicans and the WH to publish the materials at all; the fact that it did is unprecedented.

5/ Virtually all of the published material is redacted, and a very large portion of the unredacted materials is confined to matters concerning the Steele dossier. That is clearly a response (and capitulation) to Republican pressure and obsession about Steele.

6/ It would be *very* interesting to know the intel that the surveillance of Page had produced that justified the renewals, but we learn nothing about that. But it is surely there in the unredacted portions of the materials, which grew steadily in length.

7/ Because the DOJ-FBI could not disclose the really important intel, and capitulated to Republican pressure to unredact the material on Steele, the result is 412 pages that provide an opening

8/ for Republicans to claim that the FBI’s Russia investigation was nothing but a political “witch hunt” from the beginning — which is entirely unwarranted.

9/ The bombshell takeaway is that the government has evidence, based on the surveillance of Page over almost a one year period, and probable cause to believe that Carter Page, despite his public denials,

10/ is a Russian agent who has been “collaborating and conspiring with the Russian government,” and that Russian government efforts to undermine and influence the 2016 election were “coordinated with Page and perhaps other individuals associated with” Mr. Trump’s campaign.

11/ #CarterPage is in *big* trouble.