On the ballot: Who will control redistricting of state legislatures and House seats for the next 10 years?
This year, there are 86 legislative chambers in 44 states on the ballot. And the outcome of those races will have huge implications for the redistricting of state legislatures and House seats for the next 10 years. 1/14
This is the big sleeper issue of the 2020 campaign season.
Though few Rs are saying it out loud, they know that Trump is toast. What is really worrying them now are the down ballot races and their possible impact on redistricting. 2/14
“Redistricting” elections, like the U.S. Census, take place every ten years (counting by decades, as in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020) and so on. 3/14
Sometimes these are midterm elections like the 2010 election, which happened 2 years into Obama’s first term. Others, like this one, occur in a general election year. 4/14
Despite the fact that 2010 was a midterm election and this is a general election, comparing the October polling profiles of the two elections will show why Rs are so worried about the down ballot races this year. 5/14
Here is Ballotpedia’s “political index” for this election cycle as of 13 Oct 2020: 6/14 tinyurl.com/y24c9vmo
Ballotpedia’s Polling Indexes — Ballotpediahttps://tinyurl.com/y24c9vmo
I have been unable to find similar Ballotpedia data for the 2010 election, but I did find similar polling indexes for 2010 from RCP: 7/14 tinyurl.com/yy7btpyu
It is striking how similar these October “political profiles” are, suggesting very similar political landscapes, one strongly favoring Rs in 2010, and one strongly favoring Ds in 2020. 8/14
In 2010, the October “polling index” profile had disastrous consequences for Ds in down ballot races, and those races determined the redistricting decisions for House seats and state legislative seats. (The Rs gerrymandered here w/out constraint.) 9/14
From Wikipedia: “2010 United States Elections” 10/14 tinyurl.com/y6kqvn3r
In 2010 Rs had a net gain of +6 in state govenorships.
The state legislative elections were also calamitous for Ds in 2010: 11/14
As Wiki notes, in 2010 Republicans gained a total of 680 seats in state legislative races, breaking the previous record of 628 flipped seats set by Democrats in the post-Watergate elections of 1974. 12/14
So Rs must be worried when they look at today’s polling profile and compare it with October 2010. They have to consider that next year they could lose anywhere from 628 to 680 state legislative seats to Ds. 13/14
More specifically, it is what Ed Rollins must have had this in mind the other day: 14/14
ADDENDUM: Turnout is an important factor. Rs cleaned up in 2010 partly because it was a midterm election, where they generally do much better than in general elections. /1
Here are voter turnout numbers for some recent elections: /2 /https://tinyurl.com/d9pvxn8
Predictions for voter turnout in 2020 are running very high. Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) has predicted voter turnout could be as high as 150–160 million. /4
If voter turnout is very high, and Trump loses in a landslide (Biden is currently running ahead by roughly 9 pts), the impact on the redistricting of House and state legislative seats will be enormous: quite possibly exceeding the historic 680 seat turnover set by Rs in 2010. /5
