It’s the suburbs and women, over and over again

Thomas Wood
3 min readSep 30, 2020


The PA polling by ABC/WAPO and NYT/Siena shows Biden pulling ahead with a significant lead in PA, a key tipping point state which looked even a week ago that it might be slipping away from him. Not any more. 1/11

I continue to be impressed by the Biden campaign — and by Biden. Wherever he goes, shows up, campaigns, and asks for votes he wins. That has been true of the key Midwest states that are must-wins for Biden and Trump, and now there’s PA. 2/11

Wisely, the campaign focused first on the upper MIdwest states, seeing an opportunity to win back white non-college educated whites, and won big there. 3/11

After tomorrow’s debate, Biden will take a train tour through western PA and OH to seal the deal with voters in the Midwest.

(No R candidate for the presidency — beginning with Abraham Lincoln — has won the WH and lost OH. 538 currently gives Biden a +1 pt advantage there.) 4/11

After that, I expect Biden will feel free to expand the map by campaigning in sunbelt states like AZ and FL. FL is an absolute must-win for Trump, but so far Biden has only made one trip there. 5/11

Politico reports that senior citizens, perhaps the most significant single voter bloc in FL, is in play, and Biden’s current huge lead among voters on the pandemic issue should help him win there.

(538 has Biden w/ +1.7 advantage in FL currently.) 6/11

‘He just lies’: Florida’s senior voters suddenly are in playDemocrats are active even in The Villages, a Trump stronghold.

2020 is shaping up to be a huge blue tsunami: something I’ve been confidently predicting since Ds did so well in special elections in 2017 in VA, especially in the suburbs, and especially with white women. 7/11

The ‘burbs deliver for Democrats in VirginiaDemocrat Ralph Northam’s convincing 54%-45% victory over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race underscores the challenge that many GOP candidates may face in urban and suburban commu…

(Note that the ABC/WAPO PA poll released tonight shows Biden with a very significant lead in PA largely because — you guessed it — of large leads in the Philly suburbs, and especially with women.) 8/11

And of course there were the 2018 midterm elections — a Big Beautiful Blue Wave that I also confidently predicted — when Ds blew Rs out of the water in the suburbs, and especially, again, with women voters. 9/11

The writing on the wall got even worse for Trump and Rs in the 2019 off-year elections. 10/11

2020 is shaping up to be a major turning point election in American politics — and a disaster for the Trump party (aka the Republican Party).

This is going to be good. Very good. 11/11



Thomas Wood

The Resistance. Vote Blue: True Blue American. We look forward, they look back. We’re progressive, they’re regressive. @twoodiac