How much depends on Pennsylvania?

Fox is highlighting this statement by Nate Silver.

Winning PA and FL together is virtually the only path that Trump has to get to 270 votes in the EC.

Biden certainly can’t count on winning FL.

So what about PA?

1/10

Joe Biden becomes ‘an underdog’ if he doesn’t win Pa., says Nate SilverWithout Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will become “an underdog,” the founder of an opinion poll analysis website, FiveThirtyEight, said on Sunday.https://tinyurl.com/yy7duj8q

Here is 538’s forecast for PA: 2/10

That forecast is “influenced by” (not “based on,” as 538’s forecast uses Bayesian modeling rather than simple polling averages) these polls: 3/10

Here is G Elliott Morris’s forecast for PA:

Biden 93% — Trump 7% 4/10

Here are the polls Morris uses in his Bayesian modeling: 5/10

Not a good picture for Trump in Pennsylvania. At. All. 6/10

I’m not even sure that other pollsters and analysts would agree with Silver that losing PA (and FL) would make Trump an underdog. Unlike Trump, Biden has a number of other paths to get to 270 EV, as @Redistrict (Dave Wasserman) has pointed out, e.g., 7/10

And this from @ScottMStedman:

Here’s what happens if Biden flips Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

Happy Sunday. 8/10

Perhaps most ominously for Trump, 95 million Americans have already voted (I don’t know the number for PA specifically), and Biden appears to be building up a lead in EVs that will be daunting for Trump to overcome. 9/10

Clearly, Trump *could* win. That can’t be *known* from any amount of expert polling or EV calculations.

But I’m offering the above to help calm anyone out there whose nerves might be as frayed tonight as mine. 10/10