Given the history of presidential elections during recessions since the Civil War, we can confidently start writing the political epitaph for Trump already

Since the Civil War (1861–1865), only one president has won reelection with a recession occurring in the final two calendar years of his first term: William McKinley in 1900. 1/6

WAPO (Aaron Blake):

Significantly, too, recessions since the Great Depression have been less common and much more severe than they were between the Civil War and the Great Depression. 2/6

We have only five examples since the Great Depression began. During that time period, the party in power during a recession lost all five elections. (Over that same span, all nine presidents to run for reelection without a recession have won.) 3/6

WAPO published this article (by Aaron Blake) on 12 Aug 2020, when the odds of recession were only about 30%.

It is widely acknowledged that we are now in a *severe* recession, and it is not impossible that we are headed towards another depression. 4/6

Mnuchin, a Trump surrogate, has predicted that once we get past the pandemic, the economy will come roaring back.

But that’s not going to happen. The pandemic will continue to be a significant drag on the economy well onto election day, even if it peaks before then. 5/6

And since Mnuchin is surely mistaken, we can probably start writing the epitaph for the Trump Administration right now. 6/6