My gut feeling about the deal brokered by Lukashenko is this: Although Peskov has said that no discussion took place about replacing any leadership of the MoD (read Shoigu and Gerasimov), many Russian milbloggers are skeptical — and so am I. The only way Prigozhin’s about-face makes any sense is…

Barr points out the obvious: these documents are government property, not Trump’s private property. But this is a distinction that Trump was always mentally and constitutionally incapable of grasping. Trump once referred to his election in 2016 as the moment “when I took over the country.” In other words, he…

In a posting on April 3, I argued that the criticisms and infighting by the ultranationalists in Russia will almost inevitably open up a debate on Ukraine that Putin has never allowed: namely, whether the “SMO” should have been launched in the first place, and whether it should be continued…

PART I Estonian President Alar Karis insists that there will not be a “chaotic breakup” of Russia — but that is only because he is thinking in terms of a regional breakup. https://tinyurl.com/2juzry5e Karis: “There appears no imminent palace coup or mass uprising that will unseat Putin and forge a…

Over the last year or so, I have learned to pay special attention to the words and actions of Igor Girkin (aka Igor Strelkov). Girkin, a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer, led Russia’s effort to annex Crimea in 2014 and then organized pro-Russian militias in the Donbas. …

There are some further thoughts about the hearing tonight that I would like to add to my latest thread, which is now a Medium post. 1/11 What was Trump thinking on January 6? Consider two possibilities.While the evidence in this and previous hearings appears to me now to fall short…

While the evidence in this and previous hearings appears to me now to fall short of establishing seditious conspiracy, it might provide evidence for a charge of insurrection (18 U.S. Code § 2383 — Rebellion or insurrection). 1/15 Or does the evidence in its totality only show that Trump suffers…

I don’t want to sound like a broken record here (my apologies for the outdated metaphor) but the seditious conspiracy statute does not imply anything about the need to establish corrupt intent, any more than the first prong of 18 U.S. Code § 371 does. 1/4 @RDEliason @gtconway3d 18 U.S…

Pro-life advocates have been trying to put on a happy face when discussing the likely political consequences of the Dobbs ruling in the midterms and later elections. 1/51 A common theme of the messaging has been that the fever over the issue has broken; that the pro-life forces have won…